AFL Tips Round 12, AFL Tipping 2018: Round Preview and Expert Analysis
PORT ADELAIDE vs RICHMOND @ Adelaide Oval, Friday Night 7.50pm
As expected all the travelling and rest caught up with Port Adelaide, as they went down to the Hawks by the slimmest of margins. The bye is notorious for claiming teams off guard and unfortunately for the Power, they fell into the trap, losing the week after their bye. Ollie Wines has sent shivers down the spines of the powers to be at the club with an interview on SEN Tuesday morning, where he more or less stated that he is unsure of his future at the club.
The Tigers are coming off two comfortable wins at the MCG the past fortnight, even whilst having key players like Houli and Prestia out injured on the sidelines. The key challenge the Tigers will face with this match, will be if they can transfer their winning form at home into wins interstate. So far this season it appears to not be the case, as the Tigers only 2 losses have occurred in their only 2 interstate games for the year.
A loss here by the Tigers and they will undeniably be branded the new flat-track bullies of the competition.
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: Richmond to Win ($1.75)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: Richmond to Win ($1.75)
GEELONG vs NORTH MELBOURNE @ GMHBA Stadium, Saturday Afternoon 1.45pm
Not only will this match be a test between brother vs brother in the coaches box, but it will also see the two best defensive teams of the competition pitted against one another. Geelong has only given up 67 points per game whilst North Melbourne aren’t far behind conceding only 71 points per game.
North Melbourne will be hoping Jarrad Waite will be back after being a late withdrawal against the Lions, whilst young guns Jed Anderson is likely to miss with hamstring tightness and Jy Simpkin is facing a 2-week ban for rough conduct. With so much talent in the midfield, it will be interesting to see how Geelong decide to split the minutes between Ablett, Dangerfield and Tim Kelly through the middle and up forward. Gary Ablett was ultra impressive finding the right mix with 37 disposals and 3 goals straight last week against the Suns.
North Melbourne has managed to win 3 out of the last 5 contests against the Cats and was triumphant the last time these two faced off in Geelong back in 2014, which happened to be a low scoring affair at 83(N.M) to 67(Geel). Expect another low scoring contest in this latest edition.
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: North Melbourne +14.5 ($1.92)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: Match total under 158.5 ($1.40)
GIANTS vs GOLD COAST @ Spotless Stadium, Saturday Afternoon 4.35pm
The Giants finally stopped the rot of losses and managed probably the clubs best victory to date with an away win against the Crows. Jonathan Patton seemed to respond well from his 3 week hiatus in the reserves and was back to his contested marking best around the ground in the win over the crows, so too was Jeremy Cameron. It’s only been 1 win but signs are starting to point to a Giants resurgence for the second half of the year.
Gold Coast – unbelievably – played their first home game of the season at Metricon Stadium but unfortunately weren’t able to shrug off the effects of the bye and found themselves trounced by the Cats. The only reprieve for the Suns was that they welcomed back spearhead Tom Lynch and he will be much needed to provide some firepower up front if the Suns are any chance against the giants.
This fixture against the Giants at Spotless hasn’t bode well for Gold Coast traditionally in the past. In fact, the closest the Suns have come to the Giants in their past 3 matches at the venue was a 66 point defeat back in 2015. Given this history and the form the two sides are in, it’s hard to see GWS not come out on top in this one.
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: Giants 1st quarter line -10.5 ($1.90)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: Giants to lead every quarter ($1.40)
ST KILDA vs SYDNEY @ Etihad Stadium, Saturday Night 7.25pm
St Kilda has shown real resilience the past two weeks and although they never really looked like beating both Richmond and West Coast, they definitely showed signs why many expected them to be finals contenders. During the past 2 weeks, the Saints have kicked an impressive 26 goals 9 behinds, so it seems as though the yips are slowly starting to fade away for the Saints.
Over the past 3 weeks the Swans have faced uninspiring opposition in Fremantle, Brisbane and Carlton and to no one’s surprise, they have been victorious in each match. The Saints are on par with the Swans previous opponents of the past few weeks, so the challenge for John Longmire will be to ensure that his men do not become complacent due to the perceived ease of their opposition.
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: St Kilda +40.5 ($1.50)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: St Kilda total points over 68.5 ($1.98)
BRISBANE vs ESSENDON @ The GABBA, Sunday Afternoon 1.10pm
If the Lions were given the option to sit out round 11, I’m sure that, in hindsight, they would have in a heartbeat. Not only did the Lions lose by 54 points but they also are now without Charlie Cameron (foot), Allan Christensen (concussion) and Mitch Robinson (toe), who all received injuries last week. The Bombers also are with some injury concern, as star on-baller David Zaharakis has been ruled out for the next 6 weeks after needing surgery to repair an injured sternoclavicular joint.
The Brisbane Lions have managed 2 wins in their past 3 encounters against the Bombers, however, Essendon has managed to win the past 3 times that the two teams have played one another at the Gabba.
Michael Hurley will be notching up his 150th game for Essendon and you would think the milestone game combined with the injuries the Lions are facing that the Bombers will extend their record to 4 consecutive wins up at the Gabba
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: Wire to Wire any other result ($2.10)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: Essendon to Win ($1.70)
Fremantle vs Adelaide @ Optus stadium, Sunday Afternoon 4.40pm
To all the supporters who have always complained about Nat Fyfe being a protected species, you can rest happy now that he has been suspended for a week. Not only will Fyfe against the Crows but his Brownlow hopes have been dashed also, as many bookies had him as the favourite leading the votes.
Ross the Boss has stayed true to his word that he would be playing the youth from now on and with Fyfe being out, it will be no surprise to see youngster Mitch Crowden named in his spot.
The Crows have lost 3 out of their last 4 matches and have slipped out of the top 8 for the first time this season since round 1. Adelaide will want to right the ship this week against a young Fremantle line up but they won’t have it all their own way as they face injury concerns over Rory Laird who has a fractured hand and Tom Lynch who has an abdominal strain.
This will be one of the more intriguing contests of the round, as an injury-riddled Adelaide is expected to win but with both teams having lacklustre forward lines in recent weeks we expect a low scoring affair to be the better tip.
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: Match total under 172.5 ($1.90)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: Match total under 172.5 ($1.90)
MELBOURNE vs COLLINGWOOD @ MCG, Monday Afternoon 3.20pm
What a way to finish the first bye round with Melbourne hosting Collingwood on the Queen’s birthday. Both teams sit in the top 8 and are arguably the in-form sides of the competition. This much-anticipated match up will be headlined by the battle of two of the best ruckmen in the AFL, in Max Gawn vs Brodie Grundy and whichever player wins this duel will go a long way in setting up the win for their respective side.
Melbourne will need to find a replacement for Jake Lever at CHB as he, unfortunately, has been ruled out for the rest of the season with an ACL rupture, which is a huge loss for the Demons. Collingwood, on the other hand, will be sweating on the return of Jeremy Howe to see if he is passed fit to play against his old mates. Melbourne has won the past 2 Queen’s birthday encounters but you can be assured Collingwood will do everything in their power to make sure that doesn’t extend to three wins.
James Corbin’s Free AFL Tip: Collingwood +30.5 ($1.30)
Russell Adams’ Free AFL Tip: Wire to Wire any other result ($2.00)
Where to Bet on the AFL this Week?
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