AFL Tips Round 15, AFL Tipping 2018: Round Preview and Expert Analysis

RICHMOND vs SYDNEY @ Etihad Stadium, Thursday Night 7.20pm

We are into week 3 of Thursday night matches and this is by far the best matchup of them all as the first placed Tigers play host to the second-placed Swans. Oddly enough the match is being played at Etihad stadium which may favour Sydney more even though they are the visiting team, as Richmond rarely plays games at the venue.

Premiership heroes Dion Prestia and David Astbury make their much-anticipated return from injury for the Tigers as youngster Ryan Garthwaite and Kamdyn McIntosh are sent back to the reserves. The Swans welcome back club veteran Jarrad McVeigh but lose goal sneak Tom Papely, while James Rose has been selected in place of Harry Marsh.

The winner of this clash will advance to the top of the ladder, and finishing in the top two would be high on the agenda for both clubs as it will ensure they play their finals at home. Picking a winner here is as 50/50 as the two clubs results against one another in the past 10 games they have faced off, as both the Tigers and Swans have won 5 games apiece.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Richmond to Win ($1.62)

WESTERN BULLDOGS vs GEELONG @ Etihad Stadium, Friday Night 7:50 pm

The Bulldogs made a more than decent account of themselves last week against the Kangaroos and would be ruing the last minute goal by Jack Ziebell, which snatched what would have been a morale-lifting victory for the club.

Geelong has made a conscious effort to address the clubs poor post-bye round form in the previous years, in fact, it has been so bad that the Cats have not won a game after a rest dating back to 2011. Yes, Geelong has lost their last 7 games after the week off.

Chris Scott will be hoping his players have learnt from years gone by and will put an injury-depleted Bulldogs outfit to bed early in what has proven to be a danger game historically for the Cats.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Geelong last quarter line -7.5 ($1.83)

CARLTON vs PORT ADELAIDE @ MCG, Saturday Afternoon 1.45pm

Could things get worse for the Blues? We think not, the club last week lost Levi Casboult in the warm-up due to a broken finger and then proceeded to lose both Matthew Kreuzer after halftime and Lachie Plowman for the remainder of the season. If there was ever a team who needed a stroke of good fortune than Carlton would definitely be it but we don’t think that good luck will be coming in this week’s game against Port Adelaide.

The Power have won three on the trot all be it at home but have fought out victories against some quality opponents with Melbourne and Richmond being two of them. They currently sit outside the top 4 by a slim margin of 6% and will be targeting this match against the cellar dweller Blues as a prime opportunity in which to boost their percentage.

Can the Blues show some fight and Spirit and get up for club champion Kade Simpson who will be celebrating his 300th game for Carlton? Nothing is out of the realms of possibility when it comes to a milestone game for a player of the calibre of Simpson.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Port Adelaide to win between 1 – 39 ($2.37)

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ADELAIDE vs WEST COAST @ Adelaide Oval, Saturday Afternoon 4.05pm

We will call this game “the match of streaks”, with the loser of the game adding to their unfortunate record of consecutive losses. If Adelaide loses, they will be on 5 losses in a row, which at the start of the year would have been unthinkable and if West Coast loses, it’ll be 3 losses since going without their key forwards.

Adding to the Eagles forward line injury woes is the real possibility that Mark LeCras may miss with a wrist injury that he’s been battling with throughout the season. It’s difficult to see how a forward line led by youngsters Waterman, Ryan and Rioli can kick enough goals to make it a competitive game.

Adelaide, on the other hand, is set to welcome back a host of best 22 players after their bye, such as Rory Sloane, Tom Lynch, Rory Laird and Luke Brown who have all proven to be integral cogs to the success the Crows experienced last season.

Put simply with the players coming back from injury for the Crows as well as the game being played at the Adelaide Oval, combined with the injuries to key personnel that the Eagles are currently experiencing, we can’t see anything but an Adelaide victory.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Adelaide to win ($1.75)

GOLD COAST vs COLLINGWOOD @ Metricon Stadium, Saturday Night 7.25pm

Gold came flying out the blocks last round against the Hawks and took a comfortable 13 point lead going into the quarter time break, unfortunately for the Suns that’s where all the good news ended. The Suns only managed 2 more goals for the rest of the game and looked like witches hats out there against a mediocre Hawthorn.

Apart from Steven May and Rory Thompson who are both a possibility to play, Gold Coast don’t really have any other players on the horizon who will make a real impact that are set to return. A shoulder injury to key utility Sam Day sustained in round 14 may see the luckless Sun out for the remainder of the season. Collingwood are also dealing with their own injury concerns as star midfielder Adam Treloar went down with an unusual injury which saw him injure both hamstring muscles and rupture the tendon of one all at the same time, he is expected to miss the next 10 weeks for the Pies.

If there is one area where the Pies have great depth, it’s their midfield and although losing a player of Treloar’s calibre isn’t ideal, the pies can slot young bull Brayden Sier straight in whom by all reports has been playing great football in the VFL.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Collingwood to win ($1.14)

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GIANTS vs HAWTHORN @ Spotless Stadium, Saturday Night 7.25pm

Just when the Giants were beginning to get their season back on track by winning 3 in a row, they hit another obstacle in the form of a suspension to key forward Jeremy Cameron who will be serving a 5-week ban for his elbow to Brisbane opponent Harrison Andrews. With Rory Lobb already out with an injury, there will be a lot of dependence on Jonathon Patton and Harry Himmelberg to provide a real marking presence up forward, which has been an area where the Hawks have had trouble containing in years gone by.

The Hawks received their own bad news with Shaun Burgoyne injuring his hamstring in the win against the Suns which will see him for the second time this season out for a 4 week stint. Jack Gunston was also hobbled in the game with a cork to the calf but is expected to be fine to face the Suns.

Hawthorn hasn’t fared too well in years gone by at Spotless Stadium, however, one of the main factors in why the Giants were so successful at home against the Hawks was that they were able to run them off their feet. With the injuries to the likes of Scully, Williams and Deledio that shouldn’t be as much of an issue this time around. Expect a close low scoring match where the loser can kiss their finals aspirations goodbye.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Giants to win ($1.78)

MELBOURNE vs ST KILDA @ MCG, Sunday Afternoon 1.10pm

Melbourne will be looking at their loss to Port Adelaide as the match that they let slip through their fingers. The Demons led the inside 50’s. Centre clearances, stoppages and contested possession count but still could not manage to win the game, however, when you manage to not score a goal in the last quarter in such a close game you only have yourselves to blame. It’s been a season of disappointment for St Kilda but they did manage to fight out their first win since round 1 against Gold Coast before they headed into their bye. A couple of shining lights for Saints fans has been the form of youngsters Jade Gresham and Josh Battle who are 20 and 19 years of age respectively and have shown over the past few weeks that they can be reliable sources for goals heading into the future.

Melbourne will want to make sure they are able to take full advantage of their forward entries this week and will be looking at Jesse Hogan to take on the responsibility of being the number one forward and assert his dominance on the contest, which is something he failed to do against the Power.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Melbourne (Tribet) to win over 15.5 points ($1.28)

ESSENDON vs NORTH MELBOURNE @ Etihad Stadium, Sunday Afternoon 3.20pm

The Bombers made out like bandits out in the West as they blindsided the Eagles in the first quarter with a 6 goal to 0 first quarter. Nobody expected Essendon to come out and play the way they did, but the club has slowly been building belief and confidence within the playing group since surprise win over the Cats in round 9, since then they have gone 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games.

North Melbourne still cling onto 8th spot on the ladder and haven’t put a foot wrong, winning the games they have been expected to win. Shaun Higgins has been fancied as a genuine Brownlow medal chance and watching him play it’s no wonder why. A last-gasp effort was needed in the final minute of the game to get the win over the lowly Bulldogs last round and this should serve as a wakeup call to the Kangaroos that no team should be taken lightly, especially not the in-form Bombers.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: North Melbourne to score over 80.5 points ($1.84)

FREMANTLE vs @ BRISBANE, Sunday Afternoon 4.40pm

The Dockers have invested in the future and as such have elected to play the youth for the remainder of the season instead of playing more seasoned veterans Danyle Pearce and Michael Johnson. Who can blame them, when number 5 pick Adam Cerra has been in sublime form along with fellow youngsters Brennan Cox and Bailey Banfield.

The Absence of Harris Andrews will create a huge void in the Brisbane backline but having Luke Hodge back there to calm everyone down will be vital for the Lions. In fact, Hodgey wound the clock back and stepped up against the Giants when Andrews went off injured by accumulating 30 disposals, 6 rebound 50’s, 3 forward 50’s and a goal. The Lions will need more of that sort of play by their experienced players if they are to fight out an unlikely win away against the Dockers.

Fremantle has won 5 games at home this season whilst only losing 2 against opponents West Coast and North Melbourne and with 2 convincing wins in a row, you would have to say all the momentum is with the purple army in this game.

Sports Guru’s Free AFL Tip: Fremantle to win ($1.25)

Where to Bet on the AFL this Week?


Russell Adams

A football tragic doesn't begin to describe Russell when it comes to describing his love for the AFL. If you can't find him at a match at the G, you'll find him at the park having a kick or watching Fox Footy taking in every game from the week. It's true, Aussie Rules does run through this mans veins! He has made it his lifelong passion to deliver knowledgeable tips using various systems and metrics in order to give you, the punter, the best chance to profit from the sport he loves.