AFL Tips Round 17, AFL Tipping 2018: Round Preview and Expert Analysis

ADELAIDE vs GEELONG @ Adelaide Oval, Thursday Night 7.20pm

Adelaide put their best foot forward against the Tigers at the MCG last week but were found out in the last quarter when the Tigers kicked away. The positives for the Crows were that Rory Laird, Rory Sloane and Matt Crouch all accumulated 30+ possessions and look to be back in form after having stints out on the sidelines through injury.

Geelong made up for their shock loss against the Bulldogs in round 15 with a stellar performance at the SCG against the Swans, where they reminded everybody how good they can be. Surprisingly Dangerfield and Ablett were kept relatively quiet and it was the likes of Mitch Duncan, Sam Menegola and Tim Kelly who were instrumental in the win.

Geelong has a reasonable record away from home this season, however, Adelaide have comfortably taken care of the Cats at home on the last two occasions. Harry Taylor is under an injury cloud and may miss but if he does, Lachie Henderson will be waiting in the wings after being best on in the VFL.

Free AFL Tip: Geelong to win ($1.83)

ST KILDA vs CARLTON @ MCG, Friday Night 7:50 pm

St Kilda has slightly improved as the year has gone on but we can’t be so sure about Carlton. The Blues may have put together their worse performance ever under Brendan Bolton’s reign with their loss to Brisbane and many are starting to question whether he is the right man for the job.

St Kilda were hit severely in the injury department already heading into last week, with most of their key position players being unavailable and now they can add Paddy McCartin to that growing list, as he is out with foot injury. St Kilda’s depth will be tested and they may need to rely on the likes of Billings, Gresham and Membrey to kick a winning score.

This won’t exactly be a Friday night thriller but one would expect that Carlton will put together a better performance than what they dished up against the Lions. Look for Carlton to come out of the blocks strong at the MCG, because if they don’t the members will be out with their pitchforks.

Free AFL Tip: St Kilda to win ($1.32)

HAWTHORN vs BRISBANE @ University of Tasmania Stadium, Saturday Afternoon 1.45pm

The Hawks gave the Lions their only win for the season and were taken to the cleaners to the tune of 56 points. That will be a sticking point with the Hawthorn players and revenge will be on their minds when they host the much-improved Lions down at their fortress in Launceston.

The Lions will be without Harris Andrews and Charlie Cameron this time around who are two major outs from the team that beat the Hawks last time, however, Dayne Beams, Luke Hodge and Eric Hipwood have been in fine form of late.

The Hawks also have players in a rich vein of form in the likes of Jack Gunston, Jarryd Roughead and Luke Breust who all booted 14 goals between them last week against the Bulldogs.

Ben McEvoy will likely miss the next month of football with a fractured cheekbone but Jonathan Ceglar will step up as the number 1 ruck and will most likely be supported by Tim O’Brien.

 

Free AFL Tip: Hawthorn to win ($1.24)

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MELBOURNE vs WESTERN BULLDOGS @ MCG, Saturday Afternoon 4.35pm

The Demons currently sit 6th on the ladder and are in the 8 only by percentage with the Kangaroos and Giants breathing down their neck. To say this is a must win game is an understatement, the Demons have proven all year that they are flat track bullies, being able to beat up on the sides who are lower than them on the ladder but coming up short against the actual contenders of the competition.

The Bulldogs looked to be gaining some form over the past couple of weeks but were back to their unpredictable best with a second-half capitulation to Hawthorn in round 16. The Bulldogs aren’t a realistic chance to make the 8, as they only have a percentage in the 70’s and more importantly only sit on 5 wins for the season. So for the rest of the year, the Bulldogs will be playing for pride and seeing who is worth keeping on the list for next season.

With everything being at stake for the Demons, we can’t see them losing to a side who sits below them on the ladder who have nothing to play for. If the Demons are to avoid a repeat of last year where they narrowly missed the top 8 then winning games against inferior competition is a must.

Look for Max Gawn to have a best on ground performance with the Bulldogs depleted ruck stocks.

 

Free AFL Tip: Melbourne to win ($1.19)

GOLD COAST vs ESSENDON @ Metricon Stadium, Saturday Night 7.25pm

The Suns actually put up a decent effort against the Kangaroos last round, Jack Martin worked hard around the ground for his 22 disposals and 1 goal, whilst Jarryd Lyons, Lachie Weller and Jarrod Harbrow worked their back-ends off as well. Stewart Dew was not impressed with Co-captain Steven May as he “let the team down” with an undisciplined act on North Star Shaun Higgins, which cost the team.

Essendon played a very admirable game against the Pies and were very unlucky not to win as they had to contend with the injuries of David Meyers, Jake Stringer, Patrick Ambrose and even Orazia Fantasia was a late withdrawal before the game.

The Bombers will be seething after their loss last week as they can’t afford to drop any games from here on out if they have aspirations to play finals football. The likes of Dyson Heppel and Devon Smith should prove to be too strong for the Suns and the Bombers will keep their season alive with a win over the Suns.

 

Free AFL Tip: Essendon to win ($1.22)

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GIANTS vs RICHMOND @ Spotless Stadium, Saturday Night 7.25pm

The Giants fell short of the win as they played away against the Eagles, however, were very courageous in a week where key forward Jonathan Patton to a season-ending knee injury. Adam Tomlinson and Harry Himmelberg proved unlikely avenues to goal, kicking 5 goals between them in the absence of the team’s regular key forwards.

The Tigers proved once again why they are the flag favourites with another clinical performance against the Crows at the MCG. Richmond is simply making a habit of overpowering teams in the last quarter and piling on 6 or more goals to cruise to a percentage boosting victory. Kane Lambert has been Mr Consistent in the Tigers midfield this year as he racked up 33 disposals and it appears that Dustin Martin may have played himself into a bit of form with an eye-catching 2 goal, 30 possession game.

Both teams will be missing key players but Richmond may be hit the hardest with Jack Graham, Dan Butler and Nathan Broad all likely to miss weeks with injuries which may unsettle the side, However Bachar Houli and Nick Vlaustin will return.

The Tigers are yet to win an interstate game for the year, so keep an eye out for the Giants to take it right up to the Tigers as they did with a last second goal last year by Steve Johnson to win at Spotless Stadium against the Tigers.

 

Free AFL Tip: Giants + 13.5 points ($1.92)

COLLINGWOOD vs WEST COAST @ MCG, Sunday Afternoon 1.10pm

The Magpies may be losing men out on the field but they are not losing matches as a result. They are looking like true contenders, winning 7 matches in a row and American Pie convert Mason Cox is looking every bit the professional footballer and less like an experiment.

West Coast were able to stem the bleeding of losses with a win, which was their first in the last month of football. Gaff has been amazing all year for the Eagles and could even be a Smokey for the Brownlow medal. The introduction of Nathan Vardy into the team really helped the Eagles structure as it allowed them to play a tall permanently down in their forward line which is something they have dearly missed.

In good news for both clubs, it is rumoured that they could get back many of their injured stars such as Kennedy, Darling, Lecras and Barrass for the Eagles while the Pies could get back Moore, Elliot, Fasolo and Aish.

The winner of this match will go a long way in deciding who finishes in the top two come the end of the season, this will be the definition of an 8 point game.

 

Free AFL Tip: Collingwood to win ($1.46)

NORTH MELBOURNE vs SYDNEY @ Etihad Stadium, Sunday Afternoon 3.20pm

The Kangaroos disposed of the Suns seamlessly last week but will have a true test on their hands this round in the form of the Swans. North Melbourne is teetering on the edge of the 8 and must win at home against Sydney, a team they have already beat earlier this year if they are to play finals football.

The Swans were outmatched against a classy Cats outfit and missed the influence of Isaac Heeney on the game. They were smashed in the clinches and it highlighted what a liability playing Dan Hannebery has become to the side as he is no longer able to move like he used to.

You would be a brave person to tip against the Swans after a loss as they rarely lose two matches in a row, however, a hungry Kangaroos outfit may just be the team who can apply the sort of pressure that troubles Sydney just how the Cats did in round 16.

 

Free AFL Tip: Wire to Wire – Any other result ($2.10)

FREMANTLE vs @ PORT ADELAIDE, Optus Stadium Sunday Afternoon 4.40pm

Fremantle found out what life without Fyfe and Sandilands was like against the Demons and it wasn’t pretty. Back to back thumpings has the club reeling and the supporters up in arms, so a strong showing against a formidable Port Adelaide is a must.

Port Adelaide has rocketed to clear 4th on the ladder after 7 wins from their past 8 games. Recruits Tom Rockliff and Steven Motlop have added a different dynamic to the Power midfield and it has worked brilliantly alongside the likes of Wingard, Wines and Polec resulting in the club boasting one of the best midfields in the competition.

Fremantle will need to pull all their tricks out of the bag if they are a chance to create an upset against the Power and one trick they may turn to is the inclusion of Harley Bennell into the starting line up. Port should be too strong regardless and will look at this match as being a real opportunity to boost their percentage.

 

Free AFL Tip: Port Adelaide to win ($1.29)

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Russell Adams

A football tragic doesn't begin to describe Russell when it comes to describing his love for the AFL. If you can't find him at a match at the G, you'll find him at the park having a kick or watching Fox Footy taking in every game from the week. It's true, Aussie Rules does run through this mans veins! He has made it his lifelong passion to deliver knowledgeable tips using various systems and metrics in order to give you, the punter, the best chance to profit from the sport he loves.